23 May 2018

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - This Forgotten Babylon - Small Things and Tender Mercies

"Remember, my brothers and sisters, that few of you were wise in the world’s eyes or powerful or wealthy when God called you.   God chooses those that the world considers foolish in order to shame those who think they are wise.  And He chooses those that are powerless to shame those who are powerful.

God has chosen things despised by the world, small things counted as nothing at all, and has used them to bring to nothing what the world considers important.   As a result, no one can ever presume to boast in the presence of God."

1 Corinthians 1:26-29

"In Egypt's sandy silence, all alone,
Stands a gigantic Leg, which far off throws
The only shadow that the Desert knows:
I am great Ozymandias, saith the stone,
The King of Kings; this mighty City shows
The wonders of my hand. — The City's gone,
Nought but the Leg remaining to disclose
The site of this forgotten Babylon."

Norace Smith, Ozymandias

"Do not consider his appearance or his height, for I have rejected him. The Lord does not look at the things people look at. People judge by outward appearance, but the Lord looks into the heart.”

1 Samuel 16:7

“We have been called to heal wounds, to unite what has fallen apart, and to bring home those who have lost their way.”

Francis of Assisi, Fioretti di San Francesco

Stocks were weak in the early going, but caught quite a bid after the release of the Fed minutes. The Fed is determined to keep raising rates, but made sufficiently dovish noises to make stock punters feel frisky.

This is no surprise here, because the Fed is raising rates to give themselves some room to perform policy actions with rates when this latest asset bubble which they have created implodes.  And it will.

The Dollar also was higher, bumping up against the 94 handle.

Surprisingly enough gold not only held its ground but moved a little higher. It had a funny little dipsey doodle in the early going which is a classic trading move designed to shake out the stop loss orders.

Tomorrow is an expiration for precious metals on the Comex.

Need little, want less, love more.

Have a pleasant evening.

22 May 2018

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - Complexities and Simplicities and Misdirections

“Many people think of our times as being the last before the end of the world. The evidence of horror all around us makes this seem possible.  But isn't that a consideration of only small importance?   Doesn't every human being, no matter which era he lives in, always have to reckon with being accountable to God at any moment?  Can I know whether I'll be alive tomorrow morning?"

Sophie Scholl

"He has shown you what is good. The Lord requires you to act justly, and to love kindness and mercy, and to walk humbly with your God."

Micah 6:8

Fraud is wrapped in complexities, of the most artificial kinds, which aid one to deceive and be deceived.

Goodness walks with simplicity in the light.

We know what we are to do. But we make it complicated on purpose, and raise issues and false considerations.  Our darker selves resist the simplicity of the Lord, and the plainness of His tender mercies.

Grandeur and complications are the trappings of weakness and insecurity.  If someone cannot explain plainly what it is that they do or propose in response to a honestly informed question, without cloaking it in jargon and tenuous rationales, then one might well suspect its soundness.

And if simple questions are answered with ad hominem attacks, then you can be almost sure it is poorly constructed, at best and fraudulently misdirected at worst.

Stocks were attempting to rally today, but fell off towards the close of trade as the tweets of Trumpolini raised doubts about the meeting with North Korea.

The precious metals are in stasis, in observance of the upcoming options expiration on the Comex this Thursday.

It was a bit thrilling to watch the launch of the Iridium LEO satellite on a Falcon 9 rocket this afternoon. I remember when the LEO concept was first floated out as a commercial possibility, way back when. Our team was doing custom satellite work under contract for the government, and some VSAT work for commercial enterprises.

It is nice and refreshing to see the brainpower and energy of the US being used for something other than fictionalization and fraud.

Have a pleasant evening.

21 May 2018

Stocks and Precious Metals Charts - The Philosopher's Stone - Recession Warning

Teach me, my God and King,
In all things Thee to see,
And what I do in anything
To do it as for Thee...

A servant with this clause
Makes drudgery divine:
Who sweeps a room as for Thy laws,
Makes that and the action fine.

This is the famous stone
That turneth all to gold;
For that which God doth touch and own
Cannot for less be told.

George Herbert, The Elixir

Today was one of those days in the market when a great deal seems to happen, but then by the close, there is little to show for it.

Stocks rallied early on fabulously on hopes that the China-US Trade discussions were going well. And then all that optimism collapsed under its own weight, and sent stocks to the lows of the day.

But by the close most everything was back again to nearly unchanged.

There will be a Comex precious metals option expiration on Thursday, that will likely be more significant for gold.

Perhaps this is why gold took such a gut shot to test the will of the longs this morning.

Earlier today I posted an indicator that suggests that the US may be falling into another economic recession. To see it click here.

It is *possible* that the tax cuts and other stimulus may do something to defer this risk.   But given the strong bias in the cuts, and lack of a financial policy change to go with them, there may not be a significant impact on the real weekly income at the median level. 

The money seems to continue to be directed to the top.  And their spending does not provide sufficient stimulus to aggregate demand, especially when it is directed at more stock buybacks and increased predatory monopolies.

Have a pleasant evening.

Decline to Negative In Personal Median Income Growth Precedes Economic Recessions - Recession Warning Now?

The data seems to indicate that a sharp decline in Real Median Personal Income to a negative growth year over year seems to precede an economic recession.

As for the causes of this correlation, one might well wonder.   But given that the US economy tends to be consumption driven, a sharp decline in real median personal income would seem to be something worth considering.

And one might well ask, are we headed for that same experience today, with a broad slowing in aggregate demand because of a decline in growth of median income?

I am not happy that this is based on annual data.  I would have been monthly, or at least quarterly. 

Below this I also include a chart that shows the growth of average hourly wages of non-supervisory workers.  I looked this up because of a minor debate going on between two popular media economists, Baker and Krugman, about the start of wage stagnation, whether it has been since 1980, or the last recession.

As always it seems, I was not able to find my exact desired data, which would have been median real wage growth in non-supervisory, non-salaried workers.   But the case for 1980 as the start of stagnation seems rather good.

But I did stumble upon this phenomenon of declining personal income preceding recessions, which seems much more important, if true.  So it was not a complete waste of time to pursue this quibble over whether we are at full employment now, and why wage growth is not yet appearing.